Airfares in 2026 are noticeably higher than they were a year ago, and if you are wondering why flights are so expensive right now, the short answer is fuel. Airlines are paying much more to keep their planes in the air this year, and they are passing part of that extra cost on to travelers through higher ticket prices.
What you pay still depends on the route, travel dates, and available seats, so the increase does not look the same on every trip. Below, we look at how that cost reaches your fare, whether fares will come back down soon, and what you can actually do in the meantime.
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The reason flights cost more right now, in details
The main reason flights are so expensive right now is the sharp increase in jet-fuel prices that followed the escalation of the Middle East conflict in February 2026. Fuel is one of an airline’s biggest expenses, typically 20% to 30% of operating costs, so when its price jumps, airlines quickly face billions of dollars in costs they had not planned for. Airlines then recover part of that cost from passengers by raising fares.
In 2026, that share is even higher. IATA, the International Air Transport Association, projects fuel to account for 31.4% of operating expenses across the global airline industry, up from 25.4% in 2025. And the volumes barely changed: airlines are expected to consume roughly the same amount of fuel as last year. They are simply paying far more for it.
The forecasts from United and American Airlines show the scale of that increase. In July, United said it expected its 2026 fuel bill to be nearly $6 billion higher than it projected at the beginning of the year, and American forecasts spending about $6 billion more on fuel than it did in 2025. The two figures use different comparisons, but each amounts to a jump of more than 50% from 2025. American Airlines’ bill has kept climbing since then: in September, it said fuel had added roughly another $1 billion to its fourth-quarter costs.
In the past, an airline could soften some of that shock through fuel hedging. A hedge is a financial contract that protects an airline against some future fuel-price increases by agreeing on prices or limits in advance. It works a bit like insurance against a sudden spike, but that protection also costs money and doesn’t always pay off. If fuel becomes cheaper, an airline can lose money on its hedges or effectively pay more than the current market price.
Most major US airlines no longer hedge fuel. Southwest was the last major US carrier to use it extensively, but it ended its program in 2025. Southwest said the premiums it paid for that protection had become more expensive over time, among other factors. Without those contracts, airlines such as Southwest and American now feel changes in market fuel prices much more directly, which is part of why flights are so expensive now.
The same pressure is affecting airlines outside the US. In 2026, IATA estimates the global airline industry to spend $350 billion on fuel in 2026, up from $252 billion in 2025. At the same time, it expects industry profit to fall from an estimated $45 billion last year to $23 billion this year. Airlines are absorbing part of that increase themselves, but with fuel costs still rising in September, expect that pressure to keep fares high through the end of the year.
How much more you’re actually paying
Federal data gives us a good picture of how much airfare has changed overall. The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks the prices of a sample of airline trips each month as part of the Consumer Price Index. Think of its airline-fare index as a way to track whether ticket prices are moving up or down over time. It is not an average ticket price.
In August 2026, that index was 23.4% higher than in August 2025. Fares also kept rising through the summer. After accounting for normal seasonal swings in travel prices, the index increased 0.2% in June, 2.2% in July, and another 2.7% in August.
That does not mean every flight now costs 23.4% more. The index covers both domestic and international flights departing from the US, while prices on individual routes can move very differently depending on the airline, dates, competition, and how many seats are left.
If you are wondering why domestic flights are so expensive, the same broader increase is showing up on US routes too, but not by the same amount everywhere. CNBC reported one example from a domestic route: Marjorie Aran and her husband paid a combined $800 for two United economy tickets from New York to Chicago this summer. Aran said they had previously made the same trip for “a couple of hundred dollars.” It is one traveler’s experience, not a measure of the whole market, but it shows how much more some passengers are paying on familiar routes.
Fares like the one Aran paid are set to stick around for a while. Airline executives have told Wall Street analysts they expect to keep prices at this level at least through the rest of the year, so the real question for travelers is how long this will really last.
Will flight prices go down soon?
A quick, broad drop in flight prices is unlikely because of what economists call the rockets-and-feathers effect. This means that even when jet-fuel costs eventually fall (if they do), airlines will not lower fares as quickly as they raised them when costs increased.
The rockets-and-feathers effect works like this: prices shoot upward quickly when costs jump, then drift down much more slowly after those costs ease. Julian Kheel, founder of the travel-rewards site Points Path, used the comparison when speaking to CBS News about 2026 airfare, noting that airline pricing can behave much like prices at the gas station. Even if fuel gets cheaper, flight prices will go down much more slowly than they went up.
There is another reason fares are not dropping quickly: several major US airlines are cutting back some of the flights they had planned. Fewer flights mean fewer seats available for travelers to buy.
By September 2026, American, United, and Southwest had all announced or discussed schedule reductions as fuel costs rose again. United removed some flights it had planned for December and said further changes could follow in early 2027. Southwest had already reduced its planned capacity growth for 2026 by roughly half. American also said it was adjusting some late-year flying as its fuel bill increased.
That leaves the market with fewer seats at a time when people are still traveling. Even if fuel becomes cheaper for a while, airlines do not automatically need to cut fares if they can still fill the flights they operate.
Flight prices usually drop when airlines have more seats than travelers want to fill, and the current schedule cuts are moving the market the other way.
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Why airlines aren’t cutting fares even as demand holds
Airlines are still finding customers at today’s higher prices. That is a big reason fares have not fallen even as travelers complain about what they are seeing in search results, and steady demand is a big part of why flight prices keep going up.
United told investors that higher prices were having “minimal to no negative impact on demand”. The airline has since described its fourth-quarter bookings as very strong. American and Southwest have also reported solid demand.
If higher fares caused planes to start leaving with too many empty seats, airlines would have a reason to lower prices to attract more passengers. That has not happened on a broad enough scale. Travelers are still buying, so airlines can keep many of those higher fares in place.
Airlines are also using higher fares to cover more than fuel. They want to make up for higher labor, maintenance, and airport fees too. IATA expects non-fuel costs to rise 4% in 2026, and labor remains the largest non-fuel expense. With costs rising across several parts of the business, more than one force is keeping flight prices going up.
Put that together with the schedule cuts, and the pricing picture becomes fairly simple: airlines have fewer seats planned on some routes, while plenty of travelers are still willing to fill them. That gives carriers little reason to lower fares quickly.
What budget travelers can actually do about rising prices
You cannot control fuel prices or airline schedules, but you still have several ways to keep your trip within budget. Right now, flexibility is much more useful than trying to predict the exact week when airfare across the whole market will fall.
- Set a price alert for the trip you plan to take. Price alerts track a specific route and travel dates, then notify you when fares change. Even in an expensive market, individual fares still move up and down. An alert lets you watch those changes without checking the same flight every morning. Read about setting Ovago’s flight price alerts that can track your route while you decide when to buy.
- Check several date combinations if your schedule allows it. The same route can show very different fares only a few days apart. If you have some flexibility, compare a few departure and return dates before making a final decision. A small date change can put you on a flight with lower-priced seats still available.
- Compare nearby airports. A second airport can have flights with different airlines, with different flight schedules and fares. But don’t forget to estimate the full cost of the trip before choosing alternative airports. A lower fare loses much of its value if you add an expensive transfer, parking bill, or several extra hours to the trip.
- Decide what price you are comfortable paying before you decide to wait for something lower. Price alerts can tell you when a fare changes, but they cannot promise that tomorrow’s price will be lower than today’s. If the fare reaches a price that fits your budget, book it instead of waiting for a broad drop across the market. With the rockets-and-feathers effect slowing any decline and airlines flying fewer seats, that broad drop is a weak bet right now.
